Saturday, February 28, 2015

Fighting against Pyramid Schemes

According to Peter Vander Nat, a former FTC economist, it takes too long to shut down pyramid schemes due to a lack of federal rules. Hence, putting clear federal rules may help fight off pyramid schemes by swift prosecution and deterring future fraud.

I agree with Peter Vander Nat's point but it may not be a panacea for two reasons.

First, creating rules may create a bright line rule effect, where the rules are only complied in the letter only. For instance, in accounting, firms often structure the transactions so it avoids certain disclosures and accounting treatments. A good example would be leases, where firms try their best to structure the lease as an operating lease to avoid putting it on the balance sheet. Given the human ingenuity, bright line rules are limited in their effects.

Second, pyramid scheme victims share a large responsibility for the caused damage. Many knowingly engage in pyramid schemes because of the potential high payoffs. Hence, as long as human greed exists, pyramid schemes are not likely to go away. A better solution would be to educate the public more about the pyramid schemes. Specifically, focused education on the demographics that are prone the pyramid schemes would be more effective.

The billion dollar question is...is Herbal Life  (HLF) a pyramid scheme?

Personally, I think Herbal Life is a pyramid scheme. Just the way it operates through distribution and how the company keeps claiming that distributors are actually the main consumers is bizarre. First, why would you consume so much Herbal Life products and also if it's for their consumption why doesn't the firm change the business model? Why does it need distributors if they are the main consumers? What is more troubling is that there are really lot of red flags going up, please read the following article.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Sleeping beauty....nope...just Radon poisoning

Wow...So there was a sleeping sickness going around in a remote village in Kazakhstan.

And it is Radon poisoning from uranium from old mines!!  It's a radioactive, colorless, odorless, tasteless gas.

And it causes cancer, the second most frequent cause of lung cancer.

First, reading this article made me pray for the village in Kazakhstan. I really hope they get better.

Second, the soviets really didn't care much about people or the environment, as this incidence shows. Also, now we have more mystery craters popping in Siberia releasing gas, which we have no idea why.

Third, I was thankful that I don't have any radioactive gas coming from the ground. We have pollution in LA but not radioactive gas...at least not yet.

Overall, let us be thankful for everything and help others who really need help.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Edible Coffee Cups....

KFC made edible coffee cups...

Hmmm...I would give an "A" for attempt but "are you serious?" for the product.

KFC

Here are five reasons why it is a bad idea.

1. It will probably cost more and more likely to be energy intensive given the processing, meaning I am not sure if it is helping the environment much.

2. Most people have bad hand hygiene. Yes, they don't wash their hands. And now you can eat the cup that is infested with your germs. I will expect more sick people from eating edible cups.

3. You will have more food waste. I doubt people will eat the whole cup given that the bottom is touching an unclean surface.

4. There will be people who leave the cup on their table or desk forgetting that they are edible and will surely attract ants and other insects.

5. Aren't we getting too much sugar already? For sure, this will increase sugar intake of people, more obesity and diabetes.

I think a better idea would be to encourage usage of reusable cups/ mugs through lower prices or create cups that decompose quickly as soon as they are soaked with water (breakdown within a year).

Wal-Mart's Sustainability Experiment

Wal-Mart is trying to experiment whether it can sell products that are produced sustainably.

Thank you Wal-Mart for trying this attempt. I think the era of making extremely cheap products that break within a year and cause pollution should be over hopefully.

Here are my thoughts.

First, Wal-Mart consumers are there for the low price rather than sustainability. Hence, it is uncertain whether this sustainable products will sell. I think Wal-Mart might be more successful if they test in stores in areas with high college students, who at least somewhat care about sustainability.

Second, sustainability is quite hard to define. I am sure that the Sustainability Consortium (TSC) is doing its best to promote sustainability but measuring how sustainable it is quite challenging given that it is hard measure the impact of the products throughout the production. For instance, how would we measure the effect of soil pollution when a factory produces various products? How do we tease out the effect of pollution for each product? Also, a lot of sustainability issues may not be apparent in the short term (e.g. overfishing).

I am confident that with time, we would be able to measure sustainability better but just keep in mind that measurement and quantification is quite difficult. And excessive trust on deficient measurement or quantification can lead to unintended consequences.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Financial Services for the Poor

A recent study about banking for the poor finds that the villagers do not use formal banking services despite its accessibility due to concerns about embezzlement, poor service, and prohibitive withdrawal fees.

The study's results are not surprising but how could we further increase the usage of financial services by the poor. Here are three suggestions.

First, we need to establish financial trust and good governance. If you have lived in a developing country, then you know how much corruption exists. You can just google and you will see lots of fraud articles in developing nations.

Establishing financial trust and good governance takes time and lot of effort. One way to increase financial trust is to guarantee the deposits. If the villagers cannot trust the local bank or officials, an international organization may try to guarantee the deposits. Basically, the organization has to build trust in the community by being there and assuring that they will guarantee their deposits. This is costly but it is a start.

A more innovative way may include making soap operas having banking play an important role in the story. For instance, the marriage of the main characters was only possible due to savings. Soap operas are popular in Africa and have been used for combating diseases and enhancing hygiene

In terms of poor service, this will just take time and the most likely reason that the service is poor is because banking for the poor is not really profitable....

For withdrawal fees, one solution may be to have a pooled account for the whole village and as long as the village as a whole maintains a certain balance then the withdrawal fee would be waived. Although this could have some coordination costs, I believe that given the communal nature of village, it is doable.

One way to build trust and incentivize savings is offering matched savings. Donors would match the villager's savings as long as he keeps a certain amount of money in the bank for a certain amount of time. The matching would help build trust and encourage usages of financial services.

Another way would be offer savings lottery, studies show that they work quite effectively.

I believe that there is no silver bullet to solving poverty but we will push ahead and rigorous research will definitely help us get there ^^

Please support Innovation Poverty Action, which diligently conducts research to help alleviate poverty :D

Monday, February 23, 2015

Beautiful Images from Snapshot Serengeti

I love to classify animals on Snapshot Serengeti powered by Zooniverse.




*Picture from Snapshot Seregenti

Not only I like the animals but it's beautiful. It's a nice break to have from research and work. Plus, you help science and enjoy these beautiful pictures.

Enjoy the pictures and please join Zooniverse to advance science ^^


*Picture from Snapshot Seregenti


*Picture from Snapshot Seregenti


*Picture from Snapshot Seregenti


*Picture from Snapshot Seregenti

Unintended Consequences: Couple Caught in Chicago Wild Life Project Camera

We have seen a lot of weird things caught on Google Street view.

Today I ran across an intimate moment photo while categorizing animals for the Chicago Wild Life Project powered by Zooniverse.

Zooniverse helps research projects through crowdsourcing and one of the projects that it is helping is the categorization of the Chicago fauna.

I have been supporting Zooniverse for some months and try to do some categorization whenever I am
too tired to work or bored. Today, I ran into this image.


*From Chicage Wild Life Project's Images


Yup, in the right bottom corner, you can see the couple having an intimate time. Nothing "R" rated but I just thought it was funny, unintended consequences. Yes, watch out for those cameras ^^



P.S.
This is a public area and I am sure the scientists got the permission to install cameras so I don't see any legal issues.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Beer Bottle Temple of Thailand: Creative Solutions

Wat Pa Maha Chedi Kaw is a temple in Thailand made of beer bottles.

One of the monks got tired of the bottle waste and decided to build a temple by using concrete and beer bottles.

This is an excellent example of upcycling, turning a problem into great profit. Earthship is another good example of using bottles as building material and making beautiful structures.

Bottle wall background
Image from dreamstime.com

So does upcycling solve the pollution problem? Yes, but only to certain extent. I think more efficient ways to solve the pollution problem are as follows:

1. Do not be greedy or wasteful. Please take only what you can consume not more. Everything else will be waste.

2. Force firms to have complete product life cycle plans. Basically, make firms responsible for the pollution that their products create. Of course, the consumer will bear the costs as well.

3. Work, encourage, and pray for technological advancements to clean pollution.

I don't like people saying that pollution is beyond their control. Yes, they are right to certain extent but there are things that are under our control such as not being wasteful and buying stuff that is relatively less polluting. So please be part of the solution not the problem.

There is always something that we can do and the world became that much better because you made the better choices :D







Saturday, February 21, 2015

Casket Industry facing Chinese Exports

According to a Bloomberg article, Jim Malamas is trying to disrupt the US casket industry with cheaper Chinese exports.

This is great news for two reasons.

First, competition generally raises both the quality of the products and the satisfaction of the customers. More choices and cheaper price are definitely a good news to the customers.

Second, competition is going to lead to the consolidation of the funeral business, which will increase the efficiencies. For instance, Carriage Services (CSV) had a stellar performance by consolidating mom and pops funeral homes. Yet, the largest three funeral homes only own 20% of the market. Hence, there is still much room for growth.

So all is good right? Unfortunately, there is some downside.

My major concern is the lower quality of Chinese products. It is bad to vilify Chinese products but a lot of Chinese products have records of being cheap and dangerous. I really hope that those caskets are environmentally friendly and does not contain anything toxic that will harm the soil.

Well, in the bright side, here are some eco friendly ways to die. Become food for the soil :D

Or if you are more fashionable you can have your casket more fashionably.


Going out on a high: This coffin was designed for a customer who dreamed of flying
*image from Daily Ma


Apple Car!

Apple is supposedly working on an Apple car.

Well...this does not seem to be promising for three reasons.

First, the auto industry is quite competitive and have low profitability. Even with the recent increase in profitability, cars are inherently low profit. Also, it is hard to make people buy multiple cars and upgrade them every two years....

Second, remember apple maps fails? Yup, expect more trials and errors in making Apple cars. Yes, there will be Apple cars catching fire just like the Teslas.

Third, the younger generation are driving less and do not necessarily believe in car ownerships. This is one of the reasons, the famous hedge fund manager, Jeff Gundlach is bearish about car companies in the long term. So I am not sure why Apple wants to enter this declining industry and how it plans to revitalize it.

Iphone screen apps Editorial Photography

So why is Apple trying to make an Apple car?

Well, Apple is an innovative company and is trying out new things. Also, bringing new talents and perspective is likely to be a big plus for Apple in developing new strategies and products. A more sinister reason is that Tim Cook is trying to make his own mark on Apple. This may be a pet project. Or this may be a very clever strategy to mislead its competitors....

With $178 billion in cash, I would like  Apple to focus more on building stronger phones that don't shatter and have longer battery. I have seen too many shattered screens and people messaging me that their phone is dying and won't be able to respond.

Friday, February 20, 2015

AARRT

I love creativity and art!

This art of pouring different colors of paint and letting them fall is really awesome. The flowing layers of paint almost looks like computer graphics.

Enjoy the clip ^^

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Wal-Mart Raising Worker's Income

Wal-Mart is raising hourly wage for 500,000 full-time and part-time associates, ensuring that they earn at least $1.75 above today's federal minimum wage.

It is great that Wal-Mart is finally treating their employees better given that may employees were on food stamps and Wal-Mart had its own food drive for its employees.

Putting my economist hat on, here are my thoughts.

First, the increase is significant in terms of percentage but not in absolute amounts. So I am not sure if it would make the associates work harder and shirk less. If Wal-Mart wants higher productivity and increased morale of Costco, it has a long way to go. Given Wal-Mart's business model, it may be better if they invested more on automation.

[Quick Update]
According to WSJ, one of the reasons that Wal-Mart is raising the wages is to increase productivity and lower turnover. I am not so sure it that is the case. Wal-Mart had no trouble operating with low wages for many years. I do not think that productivity or turnover suddenly skyrocketed in Wal-Mart. Also, considering the recent economic conditions, I believe that there are actually more productive people who lost jobs and are applying to Wal-Mart. Hence, although the WSJ article proposes a plausible argument, it may not be the case.

Second, why now? Wal-Mart resisted raising wages for quite some time but why now? Is it because the stock price is doing well recently or did the CEO have a change of heart/ philosophy?

Hmmm...I am not so certain. In my opinion, this move was done to experiment and validate their business model. Can Wal-Mart sustain higher labor costs and still maintain its profitability?

It will be interesting to see how this raise works out. I look forward to reading to Wal-Mart's earnings conference calls. I predict that the productivity gains from increased income would not pay for itself and Wal-Mart's profitability is likely to be lower...

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

School Bus Seat Belt

The debate is back about school bus seat belts.

I agree with the ABC's report that school bus should be safer and that seat belts should save lives. Also, I believe that school seat belts are not so costly so it seems pretty obvious (hopefully...).

Yellow School Bus Stock Photo

But here are some thoughts that I had using my economist hat.

First,  is it the best usage of our constrained resources? American schools have so many problems to fix and not enough resources. Are school bus seat belts, one of those priorities?

Second, there is the law of unintended consequences. As the transportation security board mentioned raising school bus cost due to seat belts may lead to more parents/ caregivers driving their kids to school which may result in higher accidents, congestion, and loss of time by the parent/caregiver.

Remember that 911 attacks had an unintended consequence of people driving more instead of flying, which lead to more car accidents and deaths.

I just mentioned these points not to have people with pitchforks and torches in front of my house but to think about the effects of policy.

For more information about effects of policies, I suggest listening to the following podcasts which are not only educational but fun.

Freakanomics
Econtalk

If you want a book then I suggest reading Freakanomics.




Please drive safely ^^

Frozen Dinners, Loneliness, Depression, and Suicide

According to Bloomberg, frozen dinners are becoming more popular in Korea with a rising loner population.

This article is disturbing because loneliness is likely to lead to depression and depression leads to worst outcomes including suicide. According to a Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention survey, 13% of Koreans  suffered from depression. In addition,  Korea (24.7%) had the highest suicide rate among the OECD countries. This statistics are very alarming and must be taken seriously.

So what can we do about this?

First, admit that there is a problem. Koreans view mental illness as taboo and seeking help as a weakness. This has to stop. We live in stressful times and we cannot just ignore the problem until it blows up. So let us first admit that there is a problem.

Second, let us be kinder and nicer to each other. A recent study from Harvard shows that spending money on others increases happiness. So let's be more giving. Also, when you give you realize how much you have and become more thankful.

Third, always be thankful. We are so blessed. I always tell my friends to count their blessings. Yes, it can get stressful because of crappy jobs and crazy people but let us be happy with what we have. Remember that we can always be worse. Just remember how crazy you went when you did not have internet. If you are reading this post that means you have some sort of connection so let us be thankful.

Fourth, exercise. It is no secret that exercise makes you feel better and happier. No need to become the next super hot athlete. Some exercise will do the trick.

Fifth, read the bible and pray. The bible has so much wisdom and it makes us so thankful and blessed. Read the bible and you will experience it yourself. Finally, pray, pray, pray. Prayers are powerful. If you cannot ask others to pray for you ^^

Hope everyone has a blessed day :D



Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Sea Food Fraud [Fraud Series 1]

Think you know your fish? Think you know your sushi?

Guess again, a lot of fish are mislabeled. According to Oceana, a quarter of grouper in the US are mislabeled. Considering that the US seafood industry is over billions of dollars the fraud is not immaterial.

Fortunately, researchers at University of Southern Florida invented a device that analyzes the fish's RNA in about 90 minutes to deter fraud.

This is a vast improvement but 90 minutes still seems long. Hopefully, the time will be cut down and a smart phone app may be developed in the future for further efficiency.

So what do we do about fish fraud in the mean time?

1.Demand your local retailer to strengthen the identification of fishes (Whole Foods is a good example).

2. Eat fish that are more easily identifiable and less subject to fraud ^^


*Picture taken in Nicaragua

Next time we will talk about financial fraud. Be skeptical and remain safe.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Fat and Delicious Fish?! Nope! [Fraud Series 0]

I was always interested in fraud and fraud detection ever since when I was young. I became even more interested after my research training and taking a great forensics class. So today, I just ran
into this news where fish sellers literally blow air into the fish the straw to make it look more fatty
and fresh. It is in Korean but you can just see the video and you will see a guy pumping air into the
fish. This is absolutely fraudulent but it is quite funny and ingenious. Also, it is probably not hygienic
due to his saliva probably being inserted into the fish.



*From KBS News.

I intend to launch a fraud series soon, which will not make us better skeptics but also give us some laughs ^^

Unionization of Adjunct Professors

According to the WSJ, U.S. universities have relied on relatively cheap adjunct professors for cost control (just profit maximization). However, adjunct professors have started unionizing, demanding better compensation and benefits.

Well, here are my predictions.

1. Universities will try to kick out adjunct professors before they unionize. Universities are smart and unions are not really good for management....

2. Online courses will takeover. Universities will increasingly use CourseraedX, and other online education. This is actually good for the universities as a whole since courses taught at Coursera and edX are really high quality and cost less then maintaining a professor.

3. PhD students will be teaching more! Tata! no surprise here. If the adjunct professors become too expensive then they will have PhDs teach more. This already happens in lot of state schools. We will see an increase in other schools as well. Unfortunately, PhDs are less likely to unionize because they need to graduate and are usually quite busy with their research....

So what happens to the excess supply of adjunct professors? Well, here are some options.

1. They can go teach in community colleges and other technical institutes with a cut in pay but they will raise the education quality there.

2. If they are adventurous, they can go teach abroad since the faculty quality is not so high compared to the U.S. The pay will be probably lower but the cost of living will be lower as well.
3. They can go teach at prestigious high schools and raise the education quality there.

4. If they are very good then they can start their blog, youtube channel, and twitter, and start a new teaching career online, earnings advertising revenues.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Frozen Fruits

According to NPR, frozen food sales in the US has surpassed a billion dollar in 2014. The article discusses how Americans love smoothie and how Dole and other food companies are looking to expand the frozen fruit business.

I think this actually great news not only in terms of health benefits of fruits but also in terms of decrease in spoilage. Before unsold fruits were just tossed or became fertilizers (I hope...) but now they can freeze them. This will definitely help reduce the food loss of fruits (45%), which is one of the highest according to Food and Agriculture organization.

And finally here are some frozen fruit recipes :D Enjoy!

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Invasion of Giga-mansions

According to ABC News, there is an increase of uber sized mansions being built in  Beverly Hills and Bel Air. And the rich neighbors are not very happy with the constructions including Jennifer Aniston.

Here are my thoughts...

1. Why are you complaining so much if you also built mega mansions before...Yes, it is noisy with the construction and some invasion of privacy but to me, it seems like what capitalism does. Also, what you call truck noises and dangers are what ordinary people in LA face everyday. So I do not think it is an honest complaint.

I think if you want an legitimate complaint, you should complain about safety, environmental issues, and may be some noise issues. Please don't complain about capitalism.

2. Wow....human greed knows no limits...90,000 SQ FT! This is just really show off of greed. I do not blame anyone using their money the way they see fit but this seems ridiculous. I don't think two bars and two home theaters will make you twice as happier. The marginal utility is just not there. So economically it just seems odd.

3. Finally, it is your money but you can still make a better use of it by investing in things that create value from investing in people, businesses, and research.

Remember that capitalism is driven by economics and absurdities cannot persist long. Eventually negative net present value projects will cave.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

What to do with pot money

Colorado has collected so much money from marijuana sales tax that it may have to give some money back! See link below http://mic.com/articles/109764/marijuana-is-making-colorado-so-much-money-the-state-has-to-give-some-back

Wow! This does not happen often and here is the one million dollar question.

What should we do with the excess tax revenue?

1. Give back to the tax payers. This makes sense given that the individuals know what is best for them and therefore would use the money most wisely. Classical economics.

2. Use for public goods such as schooling. This proposition makes sense but given that governments are not so good at using  money effectively, well, we will hope for the best.

3. Pay down debt. Colorado has an estimated $57 debt and an interest rate of about 4%. Although the interest payment is low, it may be a good idea to pay down debt. States can run on debt for a long time (e.g. California) but as good financial advisors suggests pay down debt first because interest  compounds quickly.

Overall, it is great that Colorado has extra revenues and I hope that they use that money wisely :D




Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Supplement Fraud

Apparently, GNC, Target, Walgreens, and Walmart have been selling supplements without the labeled or advertised ingredients.

See article here: http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/new-york-attorney-general-targets-supplements-at-major-retailers/?smid=fb-share

Wow. That's a breach of trust right there. Ripping off people who want to be healthy and those that are probably older than the general population.

So is this a market failure? Both yes and no.

Yes, because, obviously, the reputation mechanism failed for now. Firms were supposed to be honest because failure to do so would decrease their profits through the market mechanism. Also, there may be a internal control issue, where the management did not monitor the lower managers well. In addition, it is a failure of oversight by the regulators. Hence, there seems to have been a market failure.

However, despite this incidence, we cannot say that the markets failed. I have not read the details but it does not appear to have been widely systematic or conducted over a long time. And regulators came to correct the issue. So I believe that it is a market hiccup rather than a market failure. A market failure may be rigged bids in a developing nations where nobody wants to participate due to absolute corruption.

So now what? I believe that the regulators will fine the perpetrators and the firms will probably settle for some amount and those supplements will be taken off the shelves.

What should we do? Several things.

1. Don't buy supplements. They don't really work anyway.

2. Buy fresh fruits and vegetable. Yes, good food actually works better.

3. Complain to GNC, Target, Walgreens, and Walmart. Tell them how upset you are and that you will not shop there until trust is restored. One complaint is unlikely to make a difference but it is a start and always voice your concerns for a better and just world.

4. Dispose any of the supplements that are suspected of being mislabeled or falsely advertised in a trash can instead of flushing down the toilet. Flushing down the toilet will cause water pollution (http://www.epa.gov/aging/docs/disposal-meds-flyer.pdf).


Hello World!

Hello World!

I have decided to start a blog for two reasons.

First, a lot of friends have asked me about a lot of stuff and I would like to just create an organized repository, where we can discuss more and grow through these discussions. Also, I believe that writing things and keeping records make us more accountable and force us to think one more time before we just spew whatever comes to our mind.

Second, I think blogging makes me more organized and creative. I already keep a journal and post online but I think blogging will keep me more coherent and interesting since I have a reputation to build and manage :D

I will be mainly writing about economics, finance, investing, and psychology, and life in general but I look forward to expanding to more areas in the future.

Cheers,

Wisdom8020