Why not copying successful people may not always work [2016/1/11]

The internet is flooded with self-help tips and following successful people. However, there are three caveats.

1. Survivorship bias. You don't see the people who failed that engaged in the same activities that the successful person engaged in. For instance, a star CEO may had a hardcore management style for him but many other CEOs who did the same strategy failed.

2. Recall bias. People tend to have faulty memory and attribution is especially not so accurate. A star may attribute his success to his hardcore upbringing while the real factor may be something else, such as the star being naturally smart. Hence, a successful person's advice may not be so accurate.

3. Lack of context. Some strategies are not for everyone. You have to contextualize. For instance, a CEO may say be more charismatic. But your leadership problem may not be charisma and increasing charisma may not be effective.

4. Effort and cost. Many successful strategies are well known such as working extra harder. But such strategy is easy to say but extremely difficult to implement. It takes immense will power and sometimes high cost (foregoing time with your family).

5. Lack of uniqueness. If everyone is doing the same strategy then nobody will succeed. For instance, if everyone stands up then no one can watch the movie better. Similarly, if everyone engages in value investing then value investing will not generate profit. Hence, it is important to realize whether one is engaged in a unique strategy to gain competitiveness.

Given survivorship bias, recall bias, lack of contextualization, high costs, and potential lack of uniqueness, it is not a good idea to just blindly listen to successful people.

So what can be done?!

Well, the best proven way! Experimentation!!

Try out new activities and see which one fits you. Methodically measure the input and output. Of course, lot of things are really hard to measure but qualitatively assessment provide some indicator. For instance, writing journals will help you better assess the impact of the new activity. Hence, be a true scientist. Experiment! Experiment! Experiment! Be your own expert!

Finally, be patient and flexible. Most activities do not bring drastic results. But accumulation of many activities changes lives. Thoughts change actions. Actions lead habits and habits change your life.  Also, start small, getting small wins is the key to discipline. Remain flexible. You have try out new things and keep adjusting your activity until you find the optimum choices. Often the journey of betterment is hard and long but its fruits are awesomely rewarding and it is much better than doing absolutely nothing.